By Mahmoud Muhammad Kano
KADUNA, 16th June 2026 – A new security advisory is forcing Northern Nigeria to confront an uncomfortable truth: education failure is now a security crisis. Engr. Abubakar Alkali of Surveillance Nig Ltd warns governors that 18.3 million Nigerian children are out of school, and the North carries 66% of that burden according to UNICEF data.
The figures hit close to home. In Kano alone, between 900,000 and 989,234 children are not in classrooms. Jigawa has roughly 330,000 to 337,861, and Katsina about 300,000 to 536,112. Together, the three states account for 16% of Nigeria’s 10.2 million primary-level out-of-school children and nearly 30% of the national 18.3 million total.
UNICEF’s Kano Field Office blames four drivers: poverty, insecurity, cultural barriers, and poor school readiness. Banditry and insurgency have shut schools and destroyed livelihoods. The problem is worse in Kebbi at 67.6%, Sokoto at 66.4%, and Yobe at 62.9%. In those states, 2 out of every 3 children never enter a classroom.
This is no longer just about literacy. The advisory calls it a “security time bomb.” Children without school, skills, or hope become easy recruits for bandits, terrorists, drug dealers, and political thugs. As the letter puts it: “An idle, illiterate youth is a weapon waiting to be loaded.” Boko Haram and kidnapping gangs thrive where schools are empty.
The cycle is simple and dangerous. Today’s out-of-school child becomes tomorrow’s unemployed adult with no critical thinking skills. Poverty passes from one generation to the next. Desperation turns to crime. Kano’s 900,000 children out of school today will be adults in 10 years — a demographic pressure no amount of drones or soldiers can fix.
The social cost is just as high. UNICEF data shows children who miss early learning are twice as likely to drop out permanently. A generation without basic education cannot build hospitals, pay taxes, run businesses, or protect communities. The North risks ending up with more AK-47s than textbooks.
Economically, the region is bleeding. Nationally, 25% of children aged 5-14 are out of school. In the North-East and North-West, it rises to 41%. Investors avoid areas with low skills and high instability. Poverty deepens, and insecurity worsens. “The gun cannot defeat ignorance. Only schools can,” the advisory insists.
The letter recommends treating education like an emergency. First, create a “Northern Education Security Fund” with 15-20% of state budgets, in line with UNESCO benchmarks. Security spending must be matched with classroom spending.
Second, scale early childhood education for ages 0-5. UNICEF stresses that ECCDE prevents dropout before it starts. Children who learn early are far more likely to enroll and finish school.
Third, secure schools instead of closing them during attacks. Every closed school pushes more children into the arms of criminals. Work with security agencies to make classrooms safe zones.
Fourth, engage communities and traditional leaders directly to break cultural barriers. Governors cannot win this fight alone. Parents and emirs must own the campaign.
Fifth, track and publish data every year. Nigerians must see enrollment, dropout, and completion rates. What gets measured gets fixed. Transparency will force accountability.
The warning ends with a message every parent can understand: bandits don’t check CVs. The child you refuse to educate today may be the one blocking your convoy tomorrow. “Build schools like you build personal houses. Fund teachers like you fund aides. Protect classrooms like you protect Government House.”
History, the advisory says, will not remember governors for SUVs and convoys. It will remember them for schools. The children abandoned now will grow up and judge the leaders who ignored them. For the North, the choice is clear: invest in classrooms today, or pay for insecurity tomorrow.
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